Author Archive | David Worthington

Microsoft to Open Retail Stores (Really)

Just as giving wasabi ice cream to children is a bad idea, the notion that Microsoft could actually duplicate the success of Apple’s retail stores might be equally unpalatable. But damn the torpedoes, it is going ahead and trying it anyway and has recruited a new executive to head the charge.

Today, Microsoft announced that it has plans to open branded retail stores as part of its marketing mix to promote Windows 7, and its Windows Mobile and Windows Live offerings. “The purpose of opening these stores is to create deeper engagement with consumers and continue to learn firsthand about what they want and how they buy,” a company press release stated.

Redmond has charged David Porter, a new Microsoft corporate vice president, to head up its retail store efforts. Porter will draw on his retail experience as a 25-year Wal-Mart veteran as he attempts to “transform” the PC and Microsoft buying experience by engaging directly with customers and demonstrating Microsoft’s “innovation and value proposition.”

The retail push will be part of a long-term effort that the company says will be sustained by Porter’s “deep retail roots and distribution understanding.” Porter will work in close partnership with leaders of existing retail programs in Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices Division, and he’ll need all the help that he can get.

Microsoft’s core business is software whereas Apple sells complete systems (and Apple Stores provide an experience). Selling software in retail stores should be about as successful as opening a video rental business in 2010.

When I randomly pinged a friend to solicit his opinion, he said, “I don’t get the point of that, what are they gonna sell–Xboxes?” and another said, “That’s a company that has no grasp of their brand image.” The opinion of two people is not exactly gospel, but it does underscore the challenges that Microsoft faces. It simply does not have the same customer affinity as Apple does.

It makes sense for Microsoft to open online stores to sell its stuff, but incurring hefty operational expenses for what sounds more like a marketing initiative than a successful business model is a dog that just won”t hunt.

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Nokia Cuts R&D, Production

Singing the macro-economic woes, Finnish telecommuncations giant Nokia has decided to cut production and to close one of its R&D sites. Ultimately, the company has failed to capitalize on the strength of the smartphone market.

Nokia is reducing production at its plant in Salo, Finland, and has begun to phase in furlough days that will affect 20 to 30% of the plant’s 2,500 employees, on a rotational basis. The company is also shuttering its facility in Jyvaskyla, Finland, costing 320 people their jobs.

Nokia told investors in January that it expects cell phone demand to fall 10 percent in 2009. However, it managed to increase its share of the worldwide mobile market in 2008 even while demand was weakened by lowered consumer confidence, according to a September 5 report by Nordic Business Report. It experienced a 69 percent drop in its 2008 fourth-quarter net profit.

In many markets, Nokia’s sales grew–it’s the U.S. market that has remained its albatross. RCR Wireless News reported in July that Nokia claimed 40% of the market in 2008, and its sales were particularly strong in the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, and Middle East.

The company is relying upon high-end smartphones to help them cope with economic crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported in a December interview with Jonas Geust, vice president of Nokia Nseries unit. The smart phone market is growing, but Nokia is not a benefiting much. It is losing out to fierce competition from Apple and Research In Motion.

It seems counterintuitive for Nokia to cut its expenses when its most advanced devices are failing to sell. The 5800 XpressMusic, Nokia’s initial answer to the iPhone, lacked multitouch capabilities. That should have been an indication that it needed to invest more, not less. I don’t see how a move away from innovation is good for customers.

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Twitter May Begin Charging for Commercial Accounts

Twitter logoTwitter may yet prove that it is more than the gilded plaything of venture capitalists , and a productivity killer for those of us who tweet while we should be working. In an interview with UK-based Marketing newspaper, co-founder Biz Stone said that the company was identifying ways to charge for commercial accounts.

Stone told Marketing, “We are noticing more companies using Twitter and individuals following them. We can identify ways to make this experience even more valuable and charge for commercial accounts,” without specifying how much the company would charge. In a Twitter blog post today, he stressed that the company isn’t ready to make any announcements about how it’ll make money. But he did say “we hope to begin iterating on revenue products this year,” which is Silicon Valleyspeak for “Sooner or later we’re gonna need to make some money.”

An actual revenue model –fancy that. Twitter’s popularity has exploded, but there has not been so much as a single advertisement served up on its Web site. Since it is unlikely that anyone will pony up another $500 million offer to buy it out anytime soon (as Facebook is rumored to have done), it’s time for Twitter to face up to the reality of 2009 and earn some money.

Since its inception, venture capitalists Bezos Expeditions, Digital Garage, Spark Capital, and Union Square Ventures have showered a combined $20 million in private equity on Stone and crew. Meanwhile, Twitter hasnever publicly explained (or demonstrated) how it would turn a profit.

Now that it has an established user base, it makes perfect sense for Twitter to leverage the direct access that it has afforded brands to their customers. Twitter has the opportunity to create several products that could keep the failwhale at bay, and to keep its employees’ lights on.

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Judge Breaths Life into Apple Clone Maker Countersuit

psystar

Following months of legal wrangling and a false start, Mac clone maker Psystar may finally get its day in court. A U.S. federal judge has ruled that Psystar will be given the opportunity to amend its counterlawsuit against Apple, filed after that company sued Psystar over its OS X-running PCs, to focus on alleged copyright abuses instead of antitrust law violations.

On Friday, Feb. 8, U.S. District Court Judge William Alsup signed an order that will allow Psystar’s countersuit against Apple to continue. If Psystar provides it allegation that Apple misused its copyrights to block out competition, other PC makers would be free to preinstall the OS onto their machines, Judge Alsup noted.

Apple sued Psystar in July 2008, accusing it of breaking copyright and software licenses laws by preloading Intel-based PCs with Mac OS X 10.5 without its blessing. The company has also accused Apple of modifying Mac OS X to crash on non-Apple systems. Psystar began selling the Mac clones in Apr. 2008.

Psystar’s original complaint accused Apple of violating antitrust law by tying its Mac OS X operating system together with its hardware, exclusively, but the court rejected that argument in November 2008.

Intellectual property law is always tricky and controversial, so lawsuits such as these should be ruled upon to clarify uncertainty (and by the highest court of the land). Until the laws themselves are reformed, this kind of uncertainty will persist.

My take is that when a company, or individual, is granted intellectual property by the government, they are essentially given a monopoly. The question is: Has Apple abused its monopoly? I don’t think that it has.

If Apple sold Mac OS X standalone, and then modified its license or software to intentionally excludes other manufacturers, that would be wrong. Apple creates it own hardware, and software for that hardware, and there is nothing wrong with that.

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A Zune Phone? Yes, Apparently. But Not From Microsoft

Zune LogoZune phones are likely on their way, but don’t expect them to be produced by Microsoft, Mary-Jo Foley is reporting. Instead, Microsoft will be attempting reproduce the success of its PC business by providing devices makers with reference designs to use to build their own devices

In November, I wrote that rumors that Microsoft was planning to announce a Microsoft-branded, enterainment-centric phone at the Mobile World Congress show in Barcelona were plausible. My rationale was that its acquisition of Danger Inc. and positioning of executive talent into its Entertainment and Devices division was an indication that it had something up its sleeve. While I still refuse to rule out that Microsoft could release its own device, that “something” is probably far less ambitious than I originally conceived.

Foley wrote that Microsoft wants to create a ‘best of breed’ Zune device by pitting smartphone makers against one another. She also reports that Microsoft’s upcomoming Zune-branded services, code-named “Pink,” “Skybox,” and “SkyMart,” will be its contribution to the user experience.

That is a better fit with Microsoft’s existing business model. It acquired the underpinning for its Zune services from Danger, and needs to provide strong Zune-branded services to have any hopes of all at competing with Apple’s iPhone juggernaut. I expect to see the fittest of Microsoft partners showcasing their Zune offerings in the near future.

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Report: Apple May Enter TV Business

Apple LogoVisions of the “digital living room” having been dancing in the heads of industry leaders for over a decade, but no one solution has broken into the mainstream. Now, Apple may be preparing for a significant push based on the success of iTunes and the iPod. Or so predicts analyst Gene Munster of investment bank Piper Jaffray, which thinks that Apple will give it a shot by introducing its own brand of networked television.

Piper Jaffray’s report says that indications from Apple’s management, coupled with Apple’s DVR and TV-related patent filings and partnership with LG, have led it to conclude that Apple will introduce a connected television to the market in 2011.

The Apple TV (not to be confused with Apple TV) could be an integrated all-in-one device that combines a Blu-ray/DVD player, music playback, cable box, and DVR to synchronize recorded programming with Macs, iPhones and iPods. It may include gaming features, according to the report.

Apple would be wise to capitalize on the ecosystem that it has created around iTunes, and its strong brand. Apple has already laid the groundwork to introduce an actual television with its Apple TV digital media receiver. Synchronization has been key to Apple’s success, and Apple has made Apple TV work well with iTunes.

Piper Jaffray noted that Apple TV sales were already growing substantially, and that Apple may sell as many as 6 million units this year.

Research analysts have a mediocre record at best when it comes to predicting what Apple will and won’t do. Still, an elegant, consolidated Apple media device would simplify the tangle of wires that many of us have in our living rooms with the added bonus of a wealth of content contained in its iTunes media library.

If the price is right, it sounds like it could be a winner to me. But the real question is whether it sounds that way to Apple.

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Online Video Watching Reaches Record Levels

A comScore Video Metrix report, released today, confirms what we all knew already: People are watching more and more online video. In fact, U.S. Internet users viewed 14.3 billion videos in December alone.

Google’s Web properties (including YouTube) received the greatest number of hits, accounting for 41% of the online video market. Fox Interactive was the (distant) runner up with a 3.1% share of the market, trailed by Yahoo, Viacom Digital, and Hulu. The average U.S. Internet user watched an average of 96 videos in December, and 78.5% of U.S. Internet users watch online video, according to the comScore report.

Viewers are trending toward short sessions, indicating that they’re not treating the Web like their TV. The average duration videos were watched for was just 3.2 minutes. Hulu users were an exception, spending 10.1 minutes per session.

Furthermore, the most popular YouTube videos of all time are music videos, comedy, and viral shorts. Far fewer people are catching entire television episodes and movies on the Web; although, video downloads and purchases were not tabulated in the report.

NBC hit pay dirt when it placed clips of SNL’s Tina Fey doubling as Sarah Palin online during the presidential election, and plenty of entire TV shows are online, complete with advertising.  So there is a financial incentive for old line media to embrace the Web. But both TV companies and TV viewers still seem to be getting their heads around Net video.

When I watched episodes of Star Trek on CBS’s classic television Web site last year, I was bombarded with surveys about the advertisements that I saw. That was very blatant market research. It will be interesting to see how the studios adapt to the Web, and if they can figure out how to turn all those online viewing sessions into the money they’ll need to pay for more content.

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Analyst: Kindle will become Billion Dollar Product

Amazon.com has cause to celebrate before it unveils Kindle 2.0 next Monday. Using Apple’s iPod as its model, Citigroup predicts that the Kindle, what it calls the, iPod of the book world,” will become a $1.2 billion dollar business by 2010.

Analyst Mark Mahaney estimates that Amazon sold over 500,000 of the e-book readers last year alone based upon filings about wireless service activations from Amazon partner Sprint. He came to the $1.2 billion figure by assuming that Kindle owners will purchase an e-book every month.

The Kindle seems to be a hit–enough of one that Amazon has struggled to keep up with demand. Whether it is on the road to becoming another iPod is another story. There may be many avid readers, but few people that I know buy a book every single month. It is much easier for people to consume music and video than it is to sit down and find the time to read. And many titles now cost over $10.

Sure, certain segments will buy books regularly–commuters, book club members–but the iPod model may not be the best fit for the Kindle. Would you buy your kids a $300 e-book reader when a single book can occupy them for under $10?

Call me a curmudgeon, but my take is that the Kindle will sell briskly, and it could help e-books become more mainstream–but it won’t become a runaway success like the iPod has been.

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Windows XP Remains the Dominant Business OS. What’s Next?

Windows XP LogoWindows Vista has been available for over two years now, but Windows XP has proven its staying power.  It remains the dominant desktop operating system for businesses in Europe and North America, according to a new report by Forrester analyst Benjamin Gray.

While I’m hesitant to make any conclusions about a survey without reviewing its methodology, the findings mesh with similar research from other analysts. Gray surveyed IT managers–I don’t know how he defined the position–and found that Windows Vista was powering fewer than 10% of PCs within enterprises. Windows XP remained strong and steady with a 71% share of the market.

“While most IT managers are anticipating the struggle with managing their upcoming dual-OS environments of Windows XP and Windows Vista, some recognize it will only get worse as they are required to more broadly support Macs, Linux, and even consumer PCs as a result of Tech Populism’s impact on the client domain,” Gray wrote.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Windows Vista: thirty-one percent of respondents have begun to migrate to it. That finding led Forrester to predict that Windows Vista will be the OS that displaces Windows XP, despite interest in Windows 7.

My sense is that Microsoft is aiming Windows 7 most directly at consumers, not businesses. The changes Microsoft is making to the Windows Taskbar are long overdue, and well done, but business users might require training to work with it and other new features in the OS. Other changes, including more mellow User Account Control settings, also target home users.

Windows Vista is a fine OS for businesses. It got off to a rough start due largely to compatibility issues, but many of those issues were ironed out in Service Pack 1.

With Vista Service Pack 2’s release imminent, it is stable and reliable enough for businesses to migrate to. It also provides better support for many core applications and hardware than Windows XP does.

My take: If given a choose between the reasonably mature Windows Vista and a new, unproven OS such as Windows 7, any IT manager worth his or her salt would migrate to Vista and not skip a generation.

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Microsoft Patent Transforms Smartphones into PCs

Watchful eyes have caught a Microsoft patent application for a souped-up smartphone cradle that displaces the PC for connecting to networks, peripherals ,and storage. Smartphones have become nearly as powerful as desktop computers were just a few years ago, and it makes sense for Microsoft to leverage their capabilities in an innovative new way.

The docking cradle plays PC and interfaces between smartphones and peripherals, handling drivers on the smartphone’s behalf and interpreting commands sent to and from it. To accomplish that task, the cradle has an embedded operating system, and contains its own CPU and memory.

If Microsoft were to try and turn this patent into a product, has several options to choose from for the cradle’s embedded OS. In one bucket, there is the Windows XP embedded family, and Windows CE 6.0 based offerings in the other. That does not include Microsoft’s .NET Micro Framework, which is developed by a separate product group.

In my view, the cradle could serve as an onramp for the Windows ecosystem, and entice laggards that would otherwise be reluctant to buy a computer to invest in a smartphone. It would also advance portability, because anyone with a compatible smartphone could conceivably dock their devices with the cradle and be up and running within minutes. Personal preferences and files could also be synchronized via Web services.

Should Microsoft follow through, it might create its own cradle, but will probably license the design out to hardware partners. The latter strategy would allow for a variety of phones to be supported.

Microsoft Patent

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