Make Predictions for 2010, Get a Shot at an Olive Digital Music Server

By  |  Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 7:48 am

Good grief, it’s almost 2010! For the second year, we’re asking you to make bold predictions about where tech-related products, companies, technologies, and people will go in the coming year–and are offering a prize to encourage your contributions.

This year, the prize is a biggie: It’s Olive’s Olive 4 Hi-Fi Music Server, which lets you convert your entire collection of CDs into high-quality digital form for listening over your stereo or across your network.The Olive has a color touchscreen; a 500GB hard drive and a built-in CD drive; and Wi-Fi, Ethernet, and digital and analog audio outputs. It’s a $1499 value and is provided courtesy of Olive.

The rules for entering the contest are pretty simple:

  • 1. Enter by making predictions about technology news we’ll see in 2010. They can involve products, companies, technologies, people, or any combination of the above.
  • 2. Make the predictions by adding comments to this post; please provide a working e-mail address in the specified field. (Your e-mail address won’t be published, and we won’t use it for any purpose except to contact you in relation to the contest.)
  • 3. Everyone who enters gets one chance at winning the Olive 4. We’ll choose our favorite entries, and they’ll get an additional four chances a piece at winning the Olive. (In other words: The best contributions will have a five times higher chance of winning.) The winner will be chosen in a random drawing.
  • 4. Favorites will be judged for creativity, plausibility, and quality of writing. Being interesting counts, but ones that sound plausible will have an edge on ones that don’t–“Apple will institute a radically more open acceptance process for the iTunes App Store” might be a favorite, but “Astronauts will discover an alien race that worships Phil Schiller” would not.
  • 5. Feel free to make multiple predictions in one comment, and take as much space as you need. We may use your entry in articles based on the contest, and reserve the right to delete entries.
  • 6. The contest will close at 5pm PT on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009, so please enter by then; we’ll notify a winner by Friday, December 18th. We’ll also publish a story next week with some of our favorite predictions.

Twitter users: If you feel like tweeting the contest and your entry therein, by all means do so. We’ve created a short URL for you to use; http://bit.ly/tpredicts.

Have fun, and let us know if you have any questions! You can always look at last year’s predictions for inspiration

 
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68 Comments For This Post

  1. JustCallMeBen Says:

    Just a quick Q: will you guys write an article about which of last year’s predictions came true? 🙂

  2. Melissa Cleaver Says:

    I think that Google will rule the world…google apps will be on everything we own, including our own TV!

  3. adam Says:

    Prediction –

    Buy the end of next year HDAudio Disc and Transports like PSAudio’s PerfectWave and others will start to push the tinny, craptastic, CD to it’s death. Along with HDAudio downloads and music servers.

    At the same time we’ll continue to see a resurgence of vinyl, lead by hi-fi freaks and hipsters with their tight black pants and fixie bikes.

    headphones will continue to grow and we will see Cam Jams start popping up at your niche neighborhood bean grinders.

  4. Renchub Says:

    1. Apple Will Not Release a tablet computer, at least not one that’s a big iPod touch. Get over it already. Aside from the Gee-whiz factor of having a tablet computer, how would you use it in day to day life?

    2. Apple will lose market share to Windows, because of the success of Windows 7, and not due to a massive upswing in netbook sales.

  5. Brian Wilkes Says:

    300 GB solid state hard drive for $200 by the end of 2010. Interest in the BlueRay media will not increase, it will be replace by Net Flix and like services like it. 3 TB Hard drive by the end of 2010. 52 inch Plasma TV for under $500. Google Chrome OS will gain a huge market share.

  6. Jonathan Hirshon Says:

    2010 will be the year of dimensionality – 3D on the Web from WebGL via HTML 5, uber-accelerated 3D on the desktop via Tesla, plus everyone having supercompute-levels of performance via OpenCL even on older 3D cards, killer 3D interfaces via OpenGL ES on iPhone, Droid and HTC (plus others). 2D gets a kick in the ass via Direct2D, giving killer font renderings on Windows, Cairo does the same for the Web through Firefox, Apple laughs and gives Quartz its long overdue launch in the new tablet for killer 2D font renderings. 🙂

  7. Bill R Says:

    Prediction for the later half of 2010:

    A city, university or large school district will begin adoption of Google’s Chrome OS for most of it’s users. An experiment sponsored by Google.

  8. heulenwolf Says:

    Heulenwolf’s Tech Predictions for 2010

    Since I’m not as good a writer as Harry, I’ll have to summarize each prediction with 6 words instead of 5:

    1) Yawn is the new First Post! Forum posters who begin their posts with “meh” or “yawn” will go the way of the dodo bird and those who posted “First post!” in the bad old days. This one’s really more of a wish than a prediction.

    2) ChromeOS, what is it good for? Tech media will finally get what ChromeOS is about – and stop calling it the comeback of the thin client – when an actual product comes out and they can see it. ChromeOS is about getting the consumer to the browser as quickly and efficiently as possible (where Google makes money) and about making the browser more useful (so that Google can make more money). This prediction requires #3 and #4.

    3) Web app developers adopt HTML 5. Wide adoption of HTML 5 by web app developers is necessary for offline usage and to move away from proprietary, closed plugins like Adobe Flash for rich content. Frankly, full screen, HD-ish video playback through a browser shouldn’t require a Core 2 Duo. Unfortunately, I think this one is more of a wish than a prediction for 2010, too, but it would be nice.

    4) After lawsuits, new name for Smartbooks. Per Harry’s post about the name “Smartbook” being trademarked – http://technologizer.com/2009/11/25/we-may-need-a-new-name-for-smartbooks-good/ – manufacturers will disavow all knowledge of the name “Smartbook” as a category and refer to their own products by their brand name. They will convince themselves that a category name is unnecessary with the side benefit that using solely brand-based names helps differentiate their product. Consumers and tech media will have none of it and will start calling everything by the name of the first successful brand (e.g. Walkman), or by its relation to it (e.g. the latest iPhone killer). Initial products will be solely from no-name companies as the big companies stick to adapting their Netbooks for ChromeOS and see whether anyone really wants and Arm-based, even smaller and lighter, web-only Something-or-other-book.

    5) IP address is not an ID. Lawmakers worldwide will continue to miss that an IP Address does not an ID make. In some parts of the world, such as Britain, providers of free public WiFi will continue to be blamed for illegal downloads and possibly even “cyber” attacks that occur from within their networks. Copyright lawsuits will continue to fly, enabling #6.

    6) Music industry gets it, Movie doesn’t. As DRM’ed music gradually fades from the market and is replaced by un-DRM’ed music and streaming services (e.g. Apple’s acquisition of Lala), the music industry will start to get it. Just like in the days of the cassette tape, they can make money even when consumers copy their stuff. In fact, as CD sales continue to drop, adapting to the new web-based music delivery model will be their only way to stay in business. Lawsuits against little old ladies by the RIAA will drop sharply. The movie industry, on the other hand, won’t get it. The MPAA will continue to sue and lobby worldwide to protect their aging business model without realizing that podcasts and IPTV are gradually taking the space they could have on-line. Consumers and the developers of Boxee, the Roku box, and libdvdcss will be blamed.

    7) Term bandwidth meaningless, consumers continue paying. As consumers and tech media continue to misuse the term “bandwidth” to mean whatever is convenient for them at the time (I don’t have the “bandwidth” to manage looking up the definition right now), pay for data amount schemes will continue and “users” will continue to be referred to as “data hogs” in both the wired and wireless broadband industries. That actual term, bandwidth, determines a max data rate or upper limit capacity, not a data amount. Since the term is so widely misused, consumers and tech media will continue to be fooled into thinking that its reasonable to be charged exorbitant monthly fees for data amounts (e.g. X GB data caps in wireless plans) when, in fact, data amounts drive only marginal cost. The capacity to handle and balance many users with broadband connections has a large, one-time infrastructure cost and maintenance costs that generally decrease with time. We, won’t realize that fact, however, and will continue to sign up to user agreements that meter the total amount of data we use and charge us for it, with tiers and overage fees to boot. The release of data usage meters, whether they be LCD readouts on cable modems or smartphone apps, will convince us that there is, in fact, an individual elf within the network carefully handling the delivery of each of our packets whom needs care, feeding, and deserves a minimum wage (after all, we need a wider band for all the elves to live in, right?). We will continue to pay for data amounts as if there is any justification in actual cost to the network provider. A small, cult-like group within academia (or some similarly-marginalized group) will begin shaking their heads in unison and publishing papers about our foolishness but will largely go unnoticed in the popular media and have no consumer mindshare. This lack of understanding enables #8.

    8) US wireless service continues to stink. Without a new leader in the wireless industry to challenge the carrier’s hold on consumers, wireless service in the US will continue to stink. Prices will remain high, caps will remain, though knowledge about actual 3G coverage will improve actual coverage won’t improve significantly, SMS and MMS messages will continue to be charged like printer ink cartridges, and carriers will continue to be handset vendors, too. 4G roll-outs in a few major population centers will lead to ever more ridiculous claims of fastest networks with increasingly long fine print explaining how the claim only applies to 3 square blocks in downtown Gotham City on patch Tuesdays under a full moon after which no zero-day exploits occur in the following week. Coverage in rural areas away from Interstates will continue to be spotty, regardless of the carrier. Luke Wilson’s career as a commercial pitch man will come to an end.

    9) Despite their incredible potential in the public safety and consumer markets, software defined radios will continue to wallow almost exclusively in the defense industry. This vacuum of enabling technology enables wireless carriers to maintain their monopoly on handsets and prevents opportunistic use of whatever networks may be available in emergency first responder equipment.

  9. Jeff Hayes Says:

    Well, just HOW am I supposed to follow a posting like heulenwolf’s???

    I’m not going to even try. I read the previous postings only to ensure nobody else had posted my thoughts already, and they haven’t.

    I have more modest predictions for the upcoming year…

    1. I see 2010 as the year that Touch Computing COMES ALIVE! HP has had a few touch computer models for several years, now, but with Windows 7 including it native in some versions, I think by Q3 we’ll see A LOT of new monitors, computers and all-in-ones that are touch-based, and by the end of the year you’ll probably have your pick. Within two to three years, it will likely be very difficult to find a monitor that’s NOT touch-based, but we’re talking just about 2010. The iPod and a few other cell phones already have similar capabilities, so MILLIONS of people are already familiar with the concept somewhat, and Bill Gates was demonstrating tabletop touch computing on the news a year or more ago. I think we’ll see this sort of thing first in high-end bars, ON the bars themselves, as a way to play games, order drinks, play songs or TV or whatever the bars choose… But it won’t be long before there will be “touch tables” in homes, as well as millions of touch-screen computers — particularly laptops, which will likely roll out more quickly.

    2. I think 2010 will be the year of both th LED AND the OLED. LED backlights are already starting to replace CFLs in LCD TVs, but except in some of the higher-end model’s, the jury’s still out on which is the superior technology. With time and technical improvements that’s bound to change. As for OLED (organic LED) technology has been around for several years, but quite expensive (Sony debuted an 11″ OLED monitor for $2,399, I believe, back when Harry was still editor of PC World). But the tech has been slowly getting less expensive and getting to be the norm on cell phones and other small screens and is now becoming more of a standard on laptop screens. I predict a major price breakthrough on OLED will bring it to ever bigger screens and that possibly even some HD TVs will be available on OLED by the end of 2010.

    That’s all I have to predict,
    Jeff

  10. Jake Says:

    1. The “cloud” will experience a dramatic and highly public failure involving stolen data.

    2. At the end of 2010, you still won’t know anyone who can explain what a Google Wave is.

  11. Alvin Says:

    1) The popularity of Real Time will be crushed by the problem of Real Time Spam and the sudden realization that you do not really need to know what your friends are having for dinner.

    2) Oracle will be forced to spin off MySql by the EU.

    3) RSS will be replaced by PubSubHub and twitter. Not completely but the trend will be obvious.

    4) CBS will merge with another giant media company. Probably Time Warner due to it’s cable properties.

    5) Mark Cuban will be subject to another SEC investigation

    6) Window 7 will a massive virus attack.

    7) Microsoft will cancel Windows Mobile.

    8) Palm will fail or be purchased for less than $10M.

    9) Facebook will raise another $100+M in it’s pursuit of profitability.

  12. Jeremy Pepper Says:

    This is hard, so just gonna make random guesses.

    1. The shine will come off of Google, finally. People will realize that it has become the new evil empire, but it gets more of a pass than MSFT bc GOOG is “part of the Valley and ‘gets it'” but will continue to not really be good, but be evil.

    2. GOOG gets rid of YouTube (spin off or sells it or jettisons it) bc it can’t monetize it and it’s a money drain.

    3. Cloud/SAAS is still hot, but more and more issues come up for corporations in the cloud, and the real implications with data leak prevention and access.

    4. Mobile becomes a bigger trend, with Verizon releasing its iPhone.

    That’s it for me, Harry!

  13. Brian Wang Says:

    1. NASA Wise (Infrared survey) finds two or more brown dwarfs within 2 light years.

    2. Spacex successfully flies Falcon9 and Dragon module

    3. EEStor successfully reveals long awaited ultracapacitor power module and Zenn motor has some demo cars. Full production of power modules and first commercial cars is after 2010.

    4. Genescient releases effective life extension product. Improves various age related biomarkers.

    5. Controversial Blacklight Power does not being commercial power production but reveals 50 kilowatt prototype units which are made available for independent testing.

  14. dholyer Says:

    1) Carbon Credits will have the public learn that it is just a feel good idea to enrich the self proclaimed Inventor or the Internet, Our former VP Mr. Al Gore and only enriches him personally and having your children walk a few blocks does more to save the Earth than Carbon Credits ever dreamed of.

    In turn the loss of income will have Gore create a new company that vacuums the WWW for all unused Milli Penney’s and for a micro Penney tax on all transactions that have less than hole amounts.

    This way he’ll be able to collect income from everyone on the globe. And still never experience Blue or White collar work.

    2) By the end of they year some Japanese Company will be working on a B&W roll-up Video display. It will be small and made for Pocket PC’s or Cell Phones. The technology is the same type used on today’s Kindles and by 2015 expect color.

    3) The last quarter of 2010 the Federal government will be bailing out the big guys in the newspaper industry, and by 2012 to dubscribe to a local newspaper you will need to buy a 17″x10″ Kindle like newspaper display that can even do slow video pictures (i.e. 16fps in B&W)

    3) by the summer of 2010 Xerox & IBM will start working on a Wall TV that comes in interconnected panels of 12x12x1 inch, you want a bigger TV go buy some more TV panels.

    4) IBM Labs will start development of the PetaCube that stores data via Holographic encryption. The little 2″x2″ cube will hold just over 1,000 Terabytes or video of every second of your 100 years of life, but to bad only in standard DVD quality, not HD that would take a cube for each day of the week. But by the end of your life Encryption/compression may fit everything on one cube.

    5) Someone will look into implanting a chip of silicon behind your ear and that uses the bodies internal voltage to never have to make you by a headphone or earphone link to your cell phone. So the new high shcool request will not be daddy given me a car I need a ear phone implant with a lifetime cell phone contract.

    6) In March to May Sony will make a 25″ OLED display that look twice as good as your 50″ Home HDTV. And they will contract with NASA to make the Flat screen displays, replacing the old LCD screens with O-LED displays.

    7) Someone will try to make a multi layer Blue Ray disc that can hold entire TV series on one disk. But to make money which body part will you trade for the software upgrade to your Blue Ray Player so you can watch more than the first few shows.

    8) the US Military will contract work to begin on the first more than 16bit Quantum Computer. After that Homeland Security will get the creation with many PetaCubes to know everything and play what if’s with the Military to counter act Terrorism.

  15. JustCallMeBen Says:

    -Android will win some significant market-share from the iPhone, but the iPhone will still be the dominant mobile OS. Windows Mobile won’t be significant by the end of the 2010.

    -Apple will announce it’s next OS, which will have a lot of improvements of existing features. The OS itself will utilize a lot more of GCD and OpenCL. The iLife ’10 suite will be snow leopard only, because it now uses GCD and Open CL, especially benefiting iMovie for rendering movies.

    -Microsoft will try to repeat the success of Windows 7 on Windows Mobile 7, but people won’t care.

    -The GeForce G300 series will change the playing field for Graphics Hardware. It will be focused on GPGPU rather than on graphics rendering, and do so by pushing CUDA. Appel will use the chips with it’s own open OpenCL, Microsoft Will push it’s own closed-source GPGPU suite.

    -Touchscreens on laptops and desktops will not become the next big thing. Geeks will whine. A lot.

    -Chrome OS will replace other Linux-distributions on most netbooks, but won’t take away market share from Windows.

    -USB3 will be a standard in most higher mid-end PC’s byt the end of 2010.

    -SSDs arrive at the higher mid-end of consumer laptops.

    -Their will be an IGP war between Intel and nVidia, because Intel is pushing it’s boundaries by producing CPU+GPU chips. Most consumers won’t care enough to inform themselves and be confused.

    -The first 13″OLED laptop will be released. Nobody will be able to afford it.

    -Photoshop CS5 will at last be 64bit on the Mac, because Adobe finally was brave enough to rewrite the old Carbon libraries.

    -Hulu will stop being free… At least as we know it: most popular shows will be pay-per-view, at least for a short period after broadcast.

    -Net-neutrality will be enforced at last. Providers will pretend this will make them go out of business, while actually it just reduces their INSANELY HIGH profits to really high profits. There will be discussions whether this should force Apple to allow VoIP apps that work over 3G in the App store. Behind the scenes AT&T will force Apple not to do so. This creates an advantage for Android.

    -(not just about 2010, more like the 2010-2015 frame) More and more PC-games will be cheap ports of their console-versions. This could ultimately kill PC-gaming, and developers will blame it on piracy.

    -Google buys Canada and makes it Ganada, a free playground for everyone, as long as they were their GPS-trackers and camera-equipped goggles.

  16. Drew Says:

    AOL will start a long slide as a stock and as a company, and will be little more than a shell of itself in one year.

  17. John Says:

    Cameras and printers will become sufficiently connected that you can take a picture in Kathmandu and have it print in Toledo, i.e. the camera/printer equivalent of GoToMyPC.

  18. Renchub Says:

    After reading all of your, I want to clarify one of my predictions, and make another.

    1. Apple will lose to market shrare WIndows 7. There won’t be fewer Apples out there, the market gains that Apple has made will be halted or reversed (less growth for apple in the laptop/desktop market.)

    2. A major network (ABC/CBS/NBC) TV company will experiment with an entirely online series. Not excerpts or side stories, (like the Heroes stuff I never watch,) but a series with an episode premiering once a week with at least one actor you know you’ve seen in a another show. This really seems like the type of gamble a USA or TNT might make, but I’m thinking it will be advertised on the major networks. Oh, and HEAVILY sponsored.

  19. Tom Markworth Says:

    Apple will launch iPhone and iPod models with a magnetic power/data cable, abandoning the years-old dock connector. The use of wireless phone chargers will multiple. The entire mobile industry will begin to rethink the use of fragile, proprietary power cables.

  20. Dan Schaeffer Says:

    Personal jet packs and flying cars. (I will make this prediction every year until it comes true.)

  21. Pete Steege Says:

    1. Motion-sensing enabled features(a la Wii) will become the next must-have accessory for smart phones and PC mice
    2. Domain sales drop precipitously as many companies use Facebook as their home page
    3. Google Water Cooler launched; quickly dominates traffic for cat videos, funny photos and chain emails
    4. The term “googlebyte” is coined; defined as the amount of storage in a Google mega-data center

  22. Kenneth Lawson Says:

    Ah Predictions for the coming year,,,
    The line between the net and traditional media will continue to merge and blur…
    As advertisers realize they can get more from a target audience, they will move to sponsor other net-networks like TWIT ..
    As the audience moves to a more mobile and diversified methods of getting content, they need have relevent content available in all forms,, and it needs to be mostly ad-free, or they will move back to bit torrents..

    Google will continue to dominate the search and on-line services..

  23. Joel Barker Says:

    CONVERGENCE 2010:

    Cloud computing, particularly productivity software goes mainstream, due to
    * the proliferation of Netbooks and a better smartphone ecosystem,
    * a (slightly) increased wireless coverage including WiMax and cell companies,
    * thin corporate budgets,
    * Google Wave,
    * Office Online
    * and some adoption of Zoho capabilities into Google Docs.

    Documents are no longer emailed across the room. People no longer mistake an old version for a new one. There will be much rejoicing.

    At the same time, competition for the eBook market gets hot. Kindles are actually spotted in coffeeshops and airports being used by actual people who are not employees of Amazon.

    Towards July, users lugging their really expensive ebooks onto airplanes ask “can I please sync my Google Docs with this thing?

    Result: Amazon picks up the phone and calls Google. By 2011, whispernet is pushing documents.

  24. Aaron Neyer Says:

    I predict that with the help of Google Chrome OS, web based applications will grow and expand to new never before seen levels. Almost any program available for download will soon have a similar thing on the web. Also through the help of Google, we will see many more things becoming free and open-source. Nearly every paid app will have an equivalent or better version of it available in open-source.
    Open source software has already proven itself to be an extreme contender in the tech world. Android phones are the new big thing in smart phones, and they are all open source allowing the entire community to make it better. Also, Mozilla Firefox is one of the most popular browsers, contributing to over 25% of the market share for web browsers, while the close sourced Internet Explorer is slowly losing it’s gain.
    Over the coming year and more, many more things will become open source and available for free as either a web application or just a normal application.
    Also open-source, I predict Linux based operating system such as Ubuntu and Google Chrome to expand rapidly, not quite taking over but definitely gaining some ground.
    So all in all, I predict it will be the year of the web and of open-source.

  25. Bruce Robinson Says:

    I’m looking for a tablet from Apple. AppleTablet? Applet? tAbble? And I think how it will handle ebooks will determine which early gen reader I get.

  26. dholyer Says:

    As cloud computing gains power (easiest why is Google’s Chrome OS) a cloud virtual computer will form. In the process this virtual super computer will give even 8 bit computers the power of a Cray Computer at their finger tips.

    With such computing power and surveillance camera links to the Web, Big Brother grows with out even knowing it. Via the Virtual cloud computer, face recognition software will be able to create a virtual surveillance camera on anyone be them a terrorist, criminal, or individual.

    This is not saying a finished product will emerge, but it will be given birth and mature and become an adult in 10 to 20 years. This has been hinted at in the last two Bond films, but the ON/OFF switch is controlled by the MI6/CIA groups, Cloud computing is controlled by how many PC’s connect to Internet (aka Technology not Government thus even Terrorist’s can use it.)

    When this happens will Al Gore still want to pretend he is the father of the Internet? Anyone that does more with a computer that use a mouse knows the answer to this irrelevant question.

  27. Darryl Says:

    1. Apple will decouple it’s Mac OS from their hardware allowing it to be a platform of choice for cloud-based solution.

    2. SSD OEMs will experience significant increased in demand – adoption rates will begin a hockey-stick like curve slightly ahead of continued price declines. Adoption will be driven initially by businesses versus consumerization into businesses.

    3. MANY notable universities and colleges will drive the replacement of text books with eBooks creating a new markets for course material and annotations for entrepreneurial grad students acutely familiar with peer-to-peer networks.

  28. Dan Says:

    Ok, my first response didn’t post, so I’ll try this again…

    2010 will be the year of high quality music downloads and personal media “lockers,” (I hate that word. We need to come up with a new term for that. Maybe our own personal clouds, or our own personal media servers that we don’t really own?)

    Anyway, 2010 will see the proliferation of high quality music downloads. The first shot will be fired by Apple or Amazon, obviously. Apple will begin selling Apple Lossless files and Amazon will begin selling aiff and flac. Actually, if you look at HDTracks and what they are selling, that is along the lines of the options that Amazon will make available. Although, it is possible that eMusic will throw the first punch here and surprise us all by adopting high quality before anyone else.

    Amazon and Apple are going to go toe to toe over making customers’ media available in the cloud. Apple will make our iTunes libraries available from the browser. We know this because of the Lala purchase, no surprises there. But Amazon will take the way Kindle users manage their Kindles online and expand that to media management. Amazon’s differentiation however, will be that they will allow users to keep their videos in the browser as well. Apple will continue to lock down their videos. Though they will tease everyone by further adopting HTML5 and we will see a full year of articles and commentary about how Apple is going to allow Apple video in the browser.

    Oh, one last thing… Apple TV will end up being really really awesome.

  29. Simcha Says:

    In 2010, we will see more and more companies and governments building their own “cloud”, in order to get the benefits of the cloud, minimizing the hazards.

    This move will lead to increase in hardware sales. (everyone has computer + the company has lots of computers in its own ‘cloud’)

    This will also give linux a big push, both in market share and in contributions to the kernel.

    Simcha (who wants a cloud for himself!)

  30. Mike Says:

    Facebook starts letting retailers sell products straight from their Fan Pages. Consumers have the option to share stories with all of their Facebook Friends about their purchases, and Facebook gets a small cut of the revenue. It's a win-win-win situation.

  31. Stephen Turner Says:

    Apple will release a tablet computer, of course. It will be a hit, and we’ll all realise why we needed a tablet computer all along.

    The war of words between Murdoch and Google will continue. However, Murdoch won’t remove his articles from Google altogether. Google will make just enough concessions that he can keep them on Google without losing face.

    We’ll see lots of interesting innovations in search, and more of them will come from Bing than from Google.

    Sun will spin off MySQL to private investors in order to get the EU to approve the Oracle takeover more quickly.

    Google will exceed 100 Google Doodles in the course of the year.

  32. Ryan C. Meader Says:

    Apple will release their tablet, and every other company under the sun will attempt to produce a “me too” version. That’s why the software (and unique features in web sites that target it) will be so unique.

    Apple will also introduce an iPhone 4G with dual-core ARM Cortex CPU, 802.11n wi-fi, and an OLED screen that will end the AT&T exclusivity deal by adding at least two new major cellular providers. Verizon will probably not be one of them, leaving T-Mobile and Sprint.

    Location-based social networks (Brightkite, Foursquare, et al) will become dominant.

    Apple will introduce a streaming option for iTunes.

    Chrome OS will continue to fail to convince anyone to give a flying #$%^.

    Virtually everything (appliances, etc) will become connected to the network with the addition of cheap low power wi-fi chips and in more mobile items like bicycles, roller skates, kayaks and so forth….low-speed cellular data chips.

    Bing will fail to really challenge Google’s search dominance but a third player will emerge.

    I will achieve global domination and enjoy my new Olive digital music server. 🙂

  33. Scott T. Says:

    Prediction – Microsoft:
    Steve Balmer will step down from the helm of the world’s largest software company. Coinciding with this event will be the return of BIll Gates in a day-to-day roll at the company. They will attempt to spin this in a way to make his return appear like the “triumphant” return of Steve Jobs to Apple.

  34. Tim Joiner Says:

    Google will be hit with a major privacy breach, involving GMail. Massive amounts of private email will be on the torrents. Celebrities and politicians alike will be skewered.

  35. Simon Bramfitt Says:

    Major security flaws will be exposed in Amazon Web Services.

    More businesses will adopt Bring You Own PC (BYOPC) as a means of saving money, some will get it badly wrong and suffer embarassing data loss.

    Apple will partner with Citrix and Intel to bring the XenClient type 1 hypervisor to Macs in 2010 replacing Boot Camp, vmWare Fusion etc. This plus widespread adoption of BYOPC will open the door to Apple in the Enterprise and will give Apple double digit market share of enterprise laptop sales.

    The US will drop from the top 10 in worldwide broadband adoption rates.

    Cisco will become the #1 seller of server blades.

    Sun’s hardware division will sink without trace.

    Oracle will quietly cease development of its hypervisor.

    Cloud based Desktop as a Service (DaaS) will sink without trace.

  36. Jill Elswick Says:

    Apple will allow Google Voice on the iPhone.

  37. Mark Prestash Says:

    In 2010 I think the tablet PC will take hold in our households. The successful tablet will be 10″-12″ and be in color. It will have built in wi-fi and/or connect via cellphone towers. If wi-max takes off, don’t be surprised if they have that connection as well. I’d prefer a touch screen only device as buttons just get in the way, and it will give the tablet an overall better appearance. What will make the tablet so big is the content that can be delivered to the device. Not only will the tablet be able to surf the web, you should be able to subscribe to newspapers, magazines, and read books on the device. The size of the screen will allow these kinds of media to be delivered to us at the size we are generally used too now. The new digital content delivery model would help to reduce the costs associated with printing but maintain the subscription model publishers like so much. To top it all off, a robust app store will allow you add functionality to your device. Apple could be the one that breaks down the tablet wall, but I think another company will ultimately be more successful as Apple’s “closed garden” policy will finally aggravate enough people to move away from their hardware.

    Also in 2010 the movie industry will finally “get it” and adopt a more customer friendly movie streaming policy. With all of the devices that can now stream content from the web (roku box, the soon to be released boxee box, TIVO, popcorn tv, voodoo box, and the more upscale blu-ray players) Hollywood will begin to support those devices with more current releases and move away from the old “staggered release” model. I would gladly pay a few bucks more a month for my Netflix account if there were more current releases available to watch streaming. The new streaming model could come in a PPV form, a DL to own, or just streaming from websites you all ready pay a subscription to. The streaming version should have all the extras that come on a disc (making of, audio commentary etc) as this adds value to the customer.

    3-D T.V. will fail in 2010 in a big way. The sets are very expensive, they require the viewer to wear special glasses, and there will be almost no content to view in 3-D for quite a long time. I’m sure the digital TV conversion is still hurting many television stations financially, so adding more/new hardware and software for 3-D TV broadcasting may just not be economically viable for them. lastly, if viewing 3-D TV is anything like the crop of 3-D movies Hollywood pumped out this year, I’m not impressed. Sure the content had an extra dimension to it, but it was in no way shape or form so good and ground-braking I want the technology in my living room.

    Lastly in 2010 I see Google’s Android OS hitting it’s stride and taking over a major share of the cell phone OS market. While there was only the G1 phone at Android’s launch, the fact that Verizon is now selling Android based phones is huge for Google – that is a lot of exposure to the non geek crowd they need to push the OS into the mainstream. Sure other carriers have been selling Android based phones, but none that have the market penetration like Verizon does. Reportedly there will be 50+ phones in 2010 that will be running on an Android based OS. That’s 49 more phone types than Apple will be selling next year. The last piece of the Android puzzle is the fact that it’s an open OS, allowing anyone to develop for it, creating any kind of app you can dream of. The fact that Android is an open playground should allow developers to really come up with new and creative ideas to sell apps on those 50+ phones running Android.

  38. Andy Maslin Says:

    1) Because of pressure from cheaper unlimited call offers, cell phone plan prices drop dramatically. SMS and MMS costs remain high, and even increase further on some carriers. Other data costs remain static (at least on traditional carriers).

    2) As traditional mobile voice plan prices decrease to meet value carrier pricing, value carriers begin to offer value data costs (but with lower quality) to continue to differentiate themselves.

    3) The US government passes legislation to protect consumers from price gouging by cell carriers. Unfortunately, the legislation affects only a few specific circumstances and largely fails to do anything for most consumers.

  39. Dattatray Jadhav Says:

    These are my predictions coming from my end-userish brain:
    1. Windows 7 will continue to be a big hit
    2. There would be a huge amount of growth in the no. of smartphone users around the world.
    3. We will see a whole new genre of marketing strategies as there would be some interesting ads form Apple, Verizon, Palm, etc. and also some disastrous ones form Microsoft.
    4. Google’s Chromium OS will be released and will fail big time as i don’t see much potential in web based computers I mean, what Google is offering is already there on smartphones. Why would i use an extra laptop just for that?
    5. For the same reason as above i see the beginning of the end for Netbooks.
    6. iTunes store success would go on with a whooping 200,000 Apps and more transparency in the Apps approval process.
    7. We would see the existence of the 4G network but its presence would be very minuscule.
    8. FCC will probably create stricter rules on the authority to control users private information and the rights to block calls.
    9. Android rises to become the toughest competitor for iPhone but would be a headache for the developers to develop different versions for for different hardware platforms.
    10. Google turns out to be the new Big Brother trying to control user’s private data stored on the cloud.
    11. Cloud computing would be implemented by some enterprises only within their VPNs. It would still take another year for it to be accepted worldwide.
    12. Windows Mobile would try to make a comeback with new strategies now that everyone has ruled them out of the race.

  40. John Says:

    In-network cell phone video calls by year end 2010.

  41. wsquared Says:

    1. Apple will finally disclose concrete details about its plan for the long-rumored Apple Tablet. It will hit the market around the 2010 holiday season.

    2. Archos will update the Archos 5IT to include a capacitive touch screen, Android Elcair, Snapdragon processor, both front and rear web cams, and access to the full Android Market. This will be a strategic move to be the top competitor (and lower-cost alternative) to the $800 Apple Tablet. Archos will announce the Archos 7IT (with the aforementioned specs) when the Archos 9 fails to gain traction.

    3. Android-based smartphones will gain, if not surpass, the iPhone’s market share with full Flash support and a quickly growing app store.

  42. andy Says:

    Apple will finally launch a subscription plan for music, and maybe videos.

    Real will forge ahead with their RealDVD Video strategy and find a way to anger the MPAA/RIAA.

    TheJooJoo will be a surprising success and @Arrington will settle for a cash buyout after he realizes his legal standing is very weak.

    Netflix and TiVo will merge; and will acquire Sonos to create the killer STB.

    Comcast will screw up Hulu.

    Google will be hit with an EU suit over its increasing dominance similar to what happened to Msoft over IE/XP.

    More and more news on web startups will be driven from foreign (i.e., non-US) based ventures.

    iTunes will move from an desktop application to a web application.

    Lastly, the emphasis on iPhone Applications / web widgets will seriously begin to challenge the browser based interface for accessing content / applications online driven by the iPad (apple tablet).

  43. Bill Says:

    Cloud computing will be all the rage, but no one will care to call it cloud computing because “cloud” will be viewed with either increasing suspicion (over security and reliability) and/or because it will no longer resonate as a “cool” marketing term.

    Specifically:

    1. Desktop virtualization will finally deliver on its promise of decreasing management costs and complexity, while increasing end-user productivity. This will be accomplished primarily by new technology and products that are cloud-based, but not necessarily identified as such.

    2. The only way for mobile devices (including netbooks, which will continue to surge in popularity) to truly become useful for every aspect of computing life is for them to access data and computing power via “the cloud.”

    3. More companies will roll out software, hardware and services that rely on and in fact are delivered through the cloud, but again, will not be marketed as such.

    Bottom line: Just as “the Internet” and “e-business” were once considered bleeding-edge marketing tools and delivery systems, now they are simply the technological “air” we breathe every day.

    Cloud computing will be everywhere, but not on anyone’s lips. (Sorry, IBM.)

    From an end-user’s perspective, perhaps a paraphrase of the great Joni Mitchell: “I really don’t know (or care about) clouds at all.”

  44. Randy Giusto Says:

    OK, here we go-

    1. Comcast/NBCU means that Verizon will be searching for a similar play because it needs a high-end content play too!

    2. The eight smart phone ecosystems (old term- operating systems) – iPhone, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, Palm, Symbian, Maemo, and Samsung’s new Bada will consolidate down to five as competition increases and developer resources to sustain them all remain thin. Samsung’s Bada will fail (why do we need yet another smart phone platform?), Palm will get acquired as it struggles to establish any foothold outside the US and WebOS will end up in other things, just not phones. Nokia moves fully from Symbian to Maemo based on a backlash of developers who are fed up with writing apps for Symbian because it’s hard (too many versions) and is not optimized for the web. But even Maemo won’t be popular and the pressure will be on Nokia to move to Android. I’m just not sure they will make the shift by the end of 2010. Windows Mobile struggles badly but makes it through the year, but just barely. RIM will not be sold, but will see increased enterprise competition (not from Microsoft) and will find a harder consumer market to compete in. RIM will start re-development efforts on its OS, go on an acquisition spree, as it must become optimized for the web. So 2010 will end with iPhone and Android strong, RIM and Nokia in transition, and Windows Mobile on the ropes.

    3. 2010 will be the year of Apple in the enterprise. We’ll see new strategies and organizational structures in Cupertino and at the store level (between the stores and Apple Enterprise sales). Led by a big push for iPhone in the enterprise, Apple will also cherry pick some enterprise verticals like design, CAD/CAM, and engineering, working with SW developers like Autodesk to gain ground on Windows. The second leg of this strategy will be with small and medium enterprise (SME) accounts, again, with the iPhone being a leading entry point for many businesses. The news and hype may be all about the tablet (if it even happens), but the real story will be around Apple’s quiet execution of a new enterprise strategy.

    4. Marketing practices will continue to shift full circle due to pressure from social media, as brands realize that campaigns that used to last weeks via paid media (print and broadcast) will be compressed to days via earned media (onlne and social). This will drive rapid consolidation among PR firms and ad agencies. Brands are already realizing that PR and ad agency services come at a high cost and have marginal impact. To combat this, PR, marketeng and advertising will need to work together within the same agency in a seamless string rather than compete individually as it does today.

    5. Web analytics firms go on a mobile analytics buying spree since the two are like oil and water (can’t replicate the same practices and tools on the web side to the mobile side). This will drive some consolidation in the market research/web analytics community as well. 2010 for these firms will be about covering all the bases- TV, web, mobile and having strong tools to mine social media data and perceptions as well.

    6. Hulu will lose it’s appeal thanks to Comcast, and will not make the transition to TV (I’m not wishing for this, by the way! Just the opposite)

    7. Google Wave will start to show some practicle applications by mid-year but 2010 will still largely be a experimental year for the platform, although other communication/conferencing/sharing platforms will get increasingly nervous and see their business models threatened.

    8. Despite best efforts, Android development will splinter just like Java did because of all the differant hardware platforms that will be pushing it in differant directions- wide degree of smart phone designs, tablets, consumer appliances, etc.

    9. Rupert Murdoch will pull away from Google and everyone under the age of 40 won’t give a damn! They’ll know where to go for their Fox fix, and won’t read the rest of the old school news properties!

    10. The Snuggie will be available in your choice of college football and Nascar team designs!

  45. NickAVV Says:

    Transparent OLED displays lead to wearable visor computers with Augmented Reality, although without a good way to control them they would be set to perform specific tasks, such as giving you walking/driving navigation overlayed on reality, or information on restaurants and other businesses floating next to them.

    Or it can display your health, armor, ammo, and flashlight battery! The possibilities are endless!

  46. Jon Says:

    5Words for 2010: Win?

    Surprise implosion: Apple or Facebook?

    Google and GE: embedded intelligence

    Venture capital “bailouts” for laggards

    Didn’t want a tablet anyway

    Killer app for phones: voicecalling!

  47. dholyer Says:

    This is an easy one to point out, just from reading the previous comments.

    Go back just two years ago and you start talking about Cloud Computing, and most figured it was your head that was in the cloud not computing.

    Last year as more of the computing world (almost 3 time the amount) had a devise be it a computer a radio or even a GPS devise new or additional information arrived via a web connection. So people stated to know there was more information on the web than your local library could have on the shelves. Then even a few started to use the mass unused background computing power. (i.e. S.E.T.I. at home amd Protein folding)

    The year 2010 as Google Chromium OS is born, the public will understand that this vast invisible computing cloud can be seen and that with the correct Cell phone App they can have the power of what use to cost millions of dollars, your cell phone may even be able to compete. So Cloud Computing step into the general computing world.

    The power of the Web and Cloud Computing may be our first step into the subject that Star Trek: The Next Generation brought up almost Twenty years ago. The BORG. First most will think Cyborg (that’s where the name came from)but few realize that the power of the Borg comes from the cloud of computing power that comes from all these networked computing brains. We have nothing to fear today or really ever until the create a direct silicon to biological interface connection (i.e. a silicon chip implanted into the brain and connects to the Internet Web). This fear a Biological Computing/Quantum Mechanics topic to discuss else where and years into the future.

  48. Sharla Lane Says:

    1. iPhone rival (not killer, but will take significant market share)
    2. Major lawsuit against Google for privacy/copyright
    3. Internet on all major airline carriers
    4. Tech czar in the White House/ significant cyberhack to defense
    5. Technologizer hits 5,000 followers on Twitter

  49. Alastair Goldfisher Says:

    Prediction #1: Pandora will reach profitability in 2010 just as Apple continues its push into streaming music and buys the VC-backed online radio music company for between $100M and $150M. That’ll be a return of about 2x to 3x for investors.

    Prediction #2: A few notable companies will launch successful IPOs in 2010, such as LinkedIn and maybe Zinga, but the number of new offerings will remain at low levels and life sciences will continue to steer clear of the public markets.

  50. Michael Says:

    Facebook’s recent policy woes continue into 2010, as the company tries to backpedal from its new privacy settings fiasco. Led by several high profile defectors in the media, users abandon the site in what starts as a trickle, but becomes a monsoon as more and more people fall victim to the site’s new openness allowing sensitive data to fall into untrustworthy hands. By the end of the year, Twitter has overtaken the ‘Book in users

  51. Aaron Neyer Says:

    Universal log-in will become extremely widespread. It is already starting to happen with sites allowing you to connect to Facebook to create an account and now Google is trying to get into this business as well.
    By the end of next year, a majority of major sites, as well as minor sites, will allow you to log in with a universal log in, most likely provided through Google, giving Google even more access to all the people’s information, which I personally consider a good thing.

  52. Aaron Neyer Says:

    Google will control more and more. They’re programs and services will become more popular than almost any other. Google Chrome will improve to become a leading web browser. Chrome OS will become a very popular operating system as cloud computing becomes increasingly popular. Many more of Googles things will grow popular and new things will emerge. Current things that will likely expand include G-mail, Picasa, Android, Google Maps and Earth, Google Docs Google Voice, and obviously Google Search. I think Google will try and make even more programs and services, so they can control more, things expanding to possibly even a Google Security Suite, although that might be stretching it a bit.
    Google will also expand into the hardware field, starting with the Google Nexus phone. Soon they will be producing their own netbooks running Chrome OS and Chrome OS may expand or become an entirely new operating system that would do more for notebooks or desktops, which could be produced by Google. Google could make more and more phones besides the Nexus and possibly even create their own network, which completely changes the way we think about phones by making it all VOIP, making it much cheaper, but relying more on your 3G, or 4G network, as I believe by then, 4G network will be very widespread.

    I don’t expect all of this to come true but I believe that some of it is definitely possible.

  53. Evan Says:

    Computing
    – Chrome OS will be released to quiet hoopla and will fail to gain more than 1% market share in 2010.
    – The Apple tablet will finally be announced by Phil Schiller, not Steve Jobs. The low-end model will have a price point of $699. Wi-Fi, 3G, tethering to iPhones, compatible with all existing iPhone/iPod Touch apps. Its name will not have an “i” before it (it won’t be “iTablet”, etc.)
    – On that note, it should be said that Jobs will make public appearances and statements with such infrequency that it will be speculated that he is no longer involved with day-to-day operations at Apple at all.

    Gaming
    – Nintendo will announce a new Wii Zelda title. MotionPlus will be required, and it will use the Vitality Sensor in some optional way that no one quite understands.
    – Microsoft will create a spin-off of Indie Games that emphasizes non-gaming applications, and open an API that allows arbitrary networking. Expect to see applications for websites like Flickr and Wikipedia, and perhaps a generalized RSS reader, pop up on the console.

    Mobile/Handheld Devices
    – HTC will announce a handheld called the Google Phone, after earlier attempts (G1, Nexus One) fail to leave a strong marketing impression on the user.
    – Apple will finally discontinue hard drive-based iPod Classic, replacing the 160 GB mainstay with a 128 GB flash memory-based iPod Touch.

  54. jhm43 Says:

    Media 2.0 meets Gov 2.0 to create Community 2.0. In Community 2.0, the relationship between government, the press, and the citizenry evolves into something that is much more transparent, engaging, and active. It is about redefining the idea of the Fourth Estate . Members of the former audience are now producers, not just consumers. Members of the former constituency are now actors, not just voters. Community 2.0 creates a living, evolving ecosystem of citizens.

    Community 2.0 is open, local and vocal. At the heart of Community 2.0 are platforms like SeeClickFix, which make the traditional modes of communicating with media and the government more iterative, process-oriented and real-time . Using these tools, voices are aggregated, issues are documented, groups are organized, actions are broadcast, and citizens are more engaged in their environments. The output is a curated, crowdsourced live stream of information detailing the most topical and timely issues in a community.

    Efficiency benefits accrue to both the media and local governments.

  55. kentkb Says:

    Free wifi becomes a utility, Bluetooth Toilet paper roll holder lets you know when you are out of TP.Apple runs ads with Eve taking the first bite of knowledge and see looks at a PC and laughs. Web 2.0 canceled. Google buys Twitter and has app. so you tweet even people who are not on Twitter. A cow will jump over the moon. The world will not come to an end ( wait two more years). A polar bear runs for Governor in Alaska. Motor vehicles with 3 wheels now considered cars so they may be taxed at a higher rate. David Letterman retires.
    3D television set sold in Japan. The Mars Lander gets unstuck and pops a Wheelie flipping on to its back like a beetle. God dies. Julia Child is roasted at the Friers club.

  56. Chris F Says:

    My tech prediction for 2010 is that smartphones will get bigger and better thus eliminating the need for netbooks / small laptops. The move to the cloud will continue as more small businesses and education facilities transfer to save $.
    Projection technology will make a big breakthrough shrinking the device size needed and eliminating the costly projector bulbs.

  57. Sidharth Dassani Says:

    1) iPhone will come with 2 cameras (for video chat)
    2) iPhone will be available for both GSM & CDMA (same phone for both)
    3) Google Chrome OS will be relesed on netbooks costing around $150

  58. Renchub Says:

    Microsoft will release a hand held gaming platform that will play X-box and classic windows desktop games. It will be hated, but sell like hotcakes because they are willing to take the financial losses to move units.

  59. Bill Pytlovany Says:

    The Bad News

    I’m sorry to say we’ll be seeing more Facebook horror stories in the news and like Microsoft, Facebook will start spending more on lawyers than they do developers.

    Advertising will finally show up on Twitter.

    The Good News
    Technologizer will expand and receive support from a well known Internet content provider.

    Competition within the cell phone industry will improve costs slightly.

    Bill

  60. Chris Says:

    Free internet TV broadcasts will become widely available and will prompt cable providers to file law suits in an attempt to continue to gouge everyone with rental fees for boxes and remotes.

  61. Renchub Says:

    Facebook will change it’s look. Many will start groups demanding the “old” facebook return, although which generation of the the old face book returning will not be discussed. Also, people will want an unlike button.

  62. Chris Michaels Says:

    Real 360 degree Markerless Motion Capture will be in your houses:

    We’ve already hear about Natal, and even SONY is planning on demonstrating the power of gesture controls at this year’s CES. But what’s really going to turn up the gaming industry to 11? It’s real Markerless Motion Capture, like what’s been provided by Organic Motion.

    The technology is already driving major advancements in animation, entertainment installations, biomechanics and military training; and soon, the simplicity of a multiperson mocap system can come to your home. Now, not only one person could stand infront of your computer screen, but the technology lets everyone in your living room could participate in a game. Real interaction, real multiplayer, real game immersion.

  63. Jason O'Keefe Says:

    Predictions –

    We may see the emergence of “micro-services”; which are a highly specialized use-model applications. Something where APIs are built to say, compare fuel prices or nightclub newsletters; these micro-services can be mashable and consumable on a highly customized bases to each users set-up. What is needed though is an iTunes-like payment acceptance program to make micro-services work. There is a likelyhood that mobile phones will enable the use of micro-services like what is seen in Japan where they are used to pay for railway passes. Also the phone could become the credit card starting in 2010.

  64. Yuce Says:

    Here’s a few of mine:

    – Google will launch $99 Chrome OS notebook

    – Google Chrome Browser will get a market share of %10, by mostly getting the pie of IE and Firefox.

    – Apple will release a new IPod touch with camera and FM radio

  65. Scott Says:

    Interactive TV is the future …and always will be. So the saying goes – but I predict this year will be different and Apple’s tablet (just a big ‘ol Newton right!? :-O) will be the game changer here. The ancillary device in the home (esp. the living room) makes sense now for the first time. Apple will launch a great platform – devs will ship cool apps for it – consumers will eat it up – and “presto” – a super cool interactive TV experience (no – not Jen’s sweater set) will be born.

  66. Leigh Anne Varney Says:

    Harry McCracken and Technologizer will be recognized (finally) for journalistic integrity and prescience!

  67. Colleen Wickwire (on behalf of Mobclix) Says:

    1.) Mobile will make up 20 percent of all digital media buys.
    2.) Android will become the #2 mobile app platform, surpassing Blackberry.
    3.) Mobile will be the next frontier in health – i.e., smartphones will be used to measure vitals such blood pressure or caloric intake.
    Smartphones become smarthouses, whereby mobile phones can be used to manage household devices.
    All smartphones, namely the iPhone, will support Flash.

  68. Colleen Wickwire (on behalf of Mobclix) Says:

    2010 Mobile Predictions

    1.) Mobile will make up 20 percent of all digital media buys.

    2.) Android will become the #2 mobile app platform, surpassing Blackberry.

    3.) Mobile will be the next frontier in health – i.e., smartphones will be used to measure vitals such blood pressure or caloric intake.

    4.) Smartphones become smarthouses, whereby mobile phones can be used to manage household devices.

    5.) All smartphones, namely the iPhone, will support Flash.

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